When Iran Attacks
On January 8, 2020, Iran used ballistic missiles to attack U.S. air bases in Iraq, in response to the U.S.-targeted killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF) commander…
In Depth Analysis, Commentary, and Publications
Catching Up: China’s Developing Military Power
For decades, China has engaged in a fervent game of “catch-up” with U.S. military capabilities. This effort, which has ballooned China’s defense spending to 620 percent of its 1990 level, is beginning…
FY 2020 Missile Defense Agency Budget Tracker
* The Senate NDAA transferred authorization for THAAD O&M and Procurement obligations to the Army. The Senate Appropriations Committee transferred appropriation obligations for Aegis BMD to the Navy and THAAD…
Iranian Missiles in Iraq
The Issue Iran-backed militias within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have acquired short-range ballistic missiles from Tehran, supplementing their existing arsenal of unguided rockets. These militias’ small, harassing rocket attacks…
A New Generation of Homeland Missile Defense Interceptors
Recent Pentagon actions have produced considerable uncertainty in the future of homeland ballistic missile defense. In August 2019, Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Dr. Michael Griffin cancelled the Redesigned Kill…
More Than Missiles: China Previews its New Way of War
The Issue China’s October 1 display of military hardware revealed a nation seeking to supplant the United States as the dominant military and technological power in the Asia-Pacific region. Many…
Don’t Waste This Lesson
How drone attacks reveal fixable flaws with American air defenses The attacks on the oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in Saudi Arabia are neon flashing warning signs of the…
Trump’s Blind Spot
New missile defense plans depend upon the success or failure of one thing: a new layer of space-based sensors. At the January release of his administration’s new missile defense policy…
Achilles’ Heel: Adding Resilience to NATO’s Fragile Missile Shield
The Issue: Missile defense is a major part of the U.S./NATO strategy to counter Iranian aggression and limit damage in the event of conflict. The missile defense architecture currently protecting NATO…
Coup-proofing? Making Sense of Turkey’s S-400 Decision
On July 12, Turkey received the first elements of the S-400, a fourth-generation surface-to-air Russian missile system. Few recent weapon sales have been as geopolitically charged as this one. U.S….
Act Now to Advance Air and Missile Defense
Acting Defense Secretary Patrick M. Shanahan has warned that the U.S. has come to take military superiority for granted, as a kind of birthright. Perhaps no aspect of military superiority…
The Missile Defense Review: Insufficient for Complex and Integrated Attack
The 2018 National Defense Strategy calls renewed strategic competition with major powers the central challenge of our time. The 2019 Missile Defense Review (MDR) represents the Trump administration’s attempt to…
Masterpiece Theater: Missed Opportunities for Missile Defense in the 2020 Budget
Download the PDF The Issue: The Trump administration’s proposed 2020 budget is not a masterpiece for missile defense. Its actions are inadequate to the challenge of complex and integrated air…
The 2019 Missile Defense Review: A Good Start
The Trump administration has today released its long-awaited Missile Defense Review (MDR). Initiated pursuant to both congressional and presidential direction, the report represents an attempt to adapt U.S. missile defense…
Beyond the Radar Archipelago: A New Roadmap for Missile Defense Sensors
In missile defense circles, commentators frequently remark that that there are only so many islands or ships in the Pacific on which to put radars. Reading through recent missile defense…
Don’t Dumb Down This US Army Radar
Abandoning 360-degree coverage would make air defenses more vulnerable and undermine their mission Press reports and statements from U.S. Army leadership suggest that omnidirectional capability for the Lower Tier Air…
Commentary: Leaving the INF Treaty Now Is the Right Call
Recent statements by President Trump and National Security Adviser John Bolton indicate the United States may soon withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The INF Treaty was…
FY 2019 Missile Defense Agency Budget Tracker
On August 1, Congress passed the FY 2019 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The bill authorizes a total of $10 billion for the Missile Defense Agency, $51 million more than…
Reorganizing the Missile Defense Enterprise
Rethinking the push for program transfer When the U.S. Missile Defense Agency was created in 2002, the expectation was that it would initially develop missile defense systems but then transfer…
Shield of the Pacific: Japan as a Giant Aegis Destroyer
Key Points: Japan’s acquisition of two Aegis Ashore sites will be a significant step to boost air and missile defense capabilities for the region, but their potential has not yet…
The Forthcoming Missile Defense Review
Later this spring, the Trump administration will release its 2018 Missile Defense Review (MDR), which is expected to better align U.S. missile defense policy with the present security environment. President…
Trump’s 2019 Missile Defense Budget: Choosing Capacity over Capability
The administration’s budget request for FY 2019 prioritizes near-term readiness against limited but growing ballistic missile threats from sources such as North Korea. This choice, however, falls short of connecting missile defense efforts to the reality of renewed great power competition as articulated in the National Defense Strategy.
How to Keep US Missile Defense on the Right Track
Recent budget moves will give the U.S. missile defense effort a major boost in funding over the coming year, likely allowing the purchase of additional Ground Based Interceptor missiles on top of the 44 already deployed for use by the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system against ICBMs headed toward the U.S. homeland.
Iran’s Burgeoning Strategic Forces
Iran’s missile forces, in tandem with other strategic tools, support a complex national security strategy that both enables the projection of power across the region, and imposes costs on adversaries seeking to directly challenge Iran’s regime.
When Allies Get Nervous
In a nuclear world, nuclear weapons are needed to deter major attacks, but who should possess these instruments of deterrence? Today the challenge of keeping nonnuclear states from going nuclear may be growing, perhaps nowhere quite as much as in northeast Asia…
Distributed Defense: New Operational Concepts for Air and Missile Defense
Despite the rising salience of missile threats, current air and missile defense forces are far too susceptible to suppression. Today’s U.S. air and missile defense (AMD) force lacks the depth, capacity, and operational flexibility to simultaneously perform both missions
Dissecting the Big Missile Defense Plus-up
Missile defense funds are likely to grow—a lot. In addition to a September reprogramming of an additional $249 million for the Missile Defense Agency for FY 2017, appropriations for FY 2018 could exceed $11 billion, over $3 billion more than the president’s original request. This would make for the highest level of missile defense funding in a decade…
Here’s How the US Army Should Arm Itself for New Threats
The U.S. Army has been at war continuously for 16 years. New technologies pose new threats and old technologies grow in numbers and capability. If ever the Army were ever to think creatively about how to meet the extraordinary demands it faces, now would be the time.
Why America Must Improve Its Missile Defense Systems
President Trump’s recent claim that U.S. ballistic-missile defenses are effective “97 percent of the time” has provoked much discussion about the capabilities of one U.S. defense system in particular: Ground-Based Midcourse Defense.
A Missile Defense Agenda
In the 1990s, the U.S. intelligence community assessed that North Korea might acquire an intercontinental ballistic missile by 2015. That threat is now here.
Video: Detecting a North Korean Missile Strike on Guam
In early August 2017, North Korea announced plans to launch four intermediate-range ballistic missiles towards the waters surrounding Guam — perhaps 30 or 40 kilometers from the island’s coast.
Missile Defense and the Nuclear Posture Review
As missile defense capabilities have matured, they have become widely recognized for their contribution to broad strategic objectives and the US nuclear posture. The growing significance of missile defenses has been more broadly reflected in major national and military strategy documents across the last several administrations.
More distributed operating concepts needed for US Army air and missile defense
A new challenge faces the joint force: the prospect of conflict with a near-peer adversary who has spent two decades going to school on the U.S. way of war. Potential adversaries have integrated air defenses and precision-strike weapons that can hold forward-based U.S. forces at risk, complicate maneuver and impair freedom of action.
Iranian Missile Launches: 1988-Present
Despite Iran’s apparent compliance with the nuclear deal concluded in 2015, its missile programs remain a serious concern. Since 2006, the United Nations has repeatedly sanctioned Iran’s ballistic missile programs,…
Improve the Space-Based Sensor System
The Pentagon’s missile defense review is now underway, incorporating mandates from both the White House and Congress. One of its considerations, at presidential direction, is whether there should be a…
North Korea’s New ICBM
North Korea conducted a flight test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that it has designated the Hwasong-14. During the July 3 test, the Hwasong-14 traveled for around 40 minutes before landing in the Sea of Japan, inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone…
Aegis Intercept Test: Critical Questions
The Missile Defense Agency yesterday conducted an intercept test of the Standard Missile-3 Block IIA (SM-3 IIA), a relatively new interceptor designed for use in the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) program. Something appears to have gone wrong, however, and the interceptor did not destroy its target. The type or cause of failure is not yet known, nor will it likely be known for some time.
The Future of Missile Defense in the Asia Pacific
Missile threats facing both the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific are increasing in complexity, number, and source. In response, the Trump administration is using missile defenses to boost military capability and signal resolve, as indicated by the deployment of THAAD to South Korea…
The GMD Intercept: What Does It Mean?
This is a good day for homeland missile defense, and a bad day for Kim Jong-un. Hit-to-kill missile defense has once again been validated, this time against a complex and challenging ICBM-class threat. The Missile Defense Agency has been on a long road to improving the reliability and capability of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) program…
Analyzing the PB 2018 Missile Defense Agency Budget
The Trump Administration’s proposed FY2018 budget for the Missile Defense Agency was released yesterday with a topline request of $7.9 billion. The amount represents $380 million more than the budget…
North Korean Missile Launches & Nuclear Tests: 1984-Present
The following database provides a chronology of North Korea missile launches and nuclear detonations, also reflected in the graphics above. These entries include full flight tests of ballistic and cruise missiles…
Missile Maps and Infographics
These graphics display the missile activity and capabilities of countries around the globe, including missile ranges, missile testing patterns, and more. All images are free use with citation to the CSIS Missile Defense Project.
North Korea’s New Missiles on Parade
This past weekend, North Korea conducted a major military parade, an annual affair to commemorate the birth of Kim Il-sung. The event included the conspicuous display of many missiles and…
Missile Defense 2020: Next Steps for Defending the Homeland
In policy pronouncements over the last two administrations, the protection of the American homeland was regularly identified as the first priority of U.S. missile defense efforts. Homeland missile defense today is provided by the Ground-based Midcourse Defense program and other elements of the larger Ballistic Missile Defense System…
Video: Next Steps for Defending the Homeland
Protecting the homeland is regularly identified as the top priority of U.S. missile defense efforts. This mission is dependent upon a global network of sensors and interceptors, including the Ground-based…
Homeland Missile Defense: Illustrations
This page provides downloadable versions of all illustrations found in Missile Defense 2020: Next Steps for Defending the Homeland. Illustrations are organized by chapter, in the order of their appearance…
Next Steps for Homeland Missile Defense
Should North Korea fire a long-range ballistic missile in anger, America’s only line of defense is an integrated system of interceptors and sensors known as the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system…
US Missile Defenses Need Better Sensors, and Soon
Gaps in coverage leave interceptors less-equipped to defeat the threats of tomorrow. No missile defense is better than the sensors that tell the interceptors where to go and what to…
FY 2017 Missile Defense Agency Budget Tracker
This chart shows the Missile Defense Agency budget movements made by each committee in both the House and Senate. The green highlighted columns show the final totals of the authorization…
Missile Defense Policy Review – A Ripe Opportunity
The defense authorization act signed into law in December 2016 contained an important provision mandating a review of missile defeat policy, strategy, and capability, to be completed and submitted to…
How to Stop Russia from Cheating on Missile Treaty
In the series finale of the television show Breaking Bad, chemistry teacher-turned meth kingpin Walter White breaks into the home of an ex-business partner, who out of fear arms himself…
Missile Defense and Defeat: Considerations for the New Policy Review
The national defense authorization act signed into law in 2016 contained a provision mandating a review of missile defeat policy, strategy, and capability, to be completed and submitted to Congress by January 2018…
The Russia – NATO A2AD Environment
Among the concerns of the NATO alliance in the post-Crimea era is the increase in Russia’s anti-access area denial (A2AD) capabilities. A2AD forces are classified as those that contribute to…
Missile Defense: Time to Go Big
Nations around the world continue to develop a growing range of ballistic and cruise missiles to asymmetrically threaten U.S. forces, allies, and the American homeland. Missile defenses have now become an essential part of U.S. defense policy and strategy, and their importance shows no sign of diminishing.
Nuclear Forces: Restore the Primacy of Deterrence
U.S. nuclear deterrent forces have long been the foundation of U.S. national security and the highest priority of the Department of Defense. As President-elect Donald Trump has observed, nuclear weapons…
Video: Midcourse Discrimination
Hit-to-kill ballistic missile defense is the ultimate precision guidance challenge. Many elements of a defense must come together to achieve a long range intercept. One of the most important and…
Interactive: The Missile War in Yemen
These interactive features show the relative intensity of missile and missile defense-related activity across the Arabian Gulf which has occurring as part of the ongoing Yemen conflict. Beginning in June 2015, the bulk of missile incidents have occurred along Yemen-Saudi border around the cities of Najran, Jizan and Abha, but Houthi acquisition of longer-range missiles have permitted attacks as far as Riyadh.
Looking East: European Air and Missile Defense after Warsaw
Last week, leaders from all 28 NATO member nations met in Warsaw, coming together for what President Obama called the alliance’s “most important moment” since the end of the Cold War…
FY17 Budget Squeezes MDA’s Research and Development
The recently released $7.5 billion FY17 budget request for the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) represents an $822 million reduction from last year’s enacted budget. These cuts are essentially divided between…
A Space Sensor Layer for Missile Defense
Space is the place for a variety of missile defense tasks — including launch detection, tracking, discrimination, intercept, and kill assessment. Ballistic missiles travel in space, and the missile defense…
Stop Eating the Seed Corn – The Growing Squeeze on Missile Defense R&D
Over the past fifteen years, missile defense has gone from an idea largely restricted by treaty, to a kind of infancy with initial defensive capability, to what now might be…
MDA and the Color of Money
This study explores the growing competition for scarce dollars at the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA). It traces the authorities, roles, and missions assigned to the agency and the growing…
Missile Defense Budget Trends
Explore high resolution graphs analyzing decades of U.S. missile defense budget trends featured in the CSIS report The Missile Defense Agency and the Color of Money: Fewer Resources, More Responsibilities,…
The Dirty Secret of US-Israel Missile Defense Cooperation
We need a way to fund Israel’s missile defenses without undercutting our own. This weekend, the acting head of Israel’s National Security Council will visit Washington, reportedly to conclude a…
Thinking about the Unthinkable in a Highly Proliferated World
For decades, the United States has led the effort to stem the spread of nuclear weapons, both among potential adversaries and among its allies and partners. The current state of deterrence and of the nonproliferation regime, however, is open to many doubts…
JLENS Future Bleak, But Need for Capability Remains
Missile defense is not just about ballistic missiles. The wider problem of integrated air and missile defense, to include cruise missiles, has received growing attention in recent years. However, attempts to design and field an architecture to detect and track cruise missiles has proven challenging…
What North Korea’s Latest Missile Test Means for the US and Its Allies
The Unha launch is hardly the basis for panic, but it is time for certain measures to ensure security and stability. Coming on the heels of the North’s fourth nuclear detonation, the launch reflects both continued technical advances and their sustained ICBM ambitions. These recent events mean that active measures to counter North Korea’s missile program will likely take on renewed importance.
North Korea’s February 2016 Satellite Launch
On the morning of February 7, North Korea launched an Unha-type rocket, headed due south. The rocket then apparently orbited an “earth observation satellite” called Kwangmyongsong-4 (lode star), reportedly weighing 200 kilograms, about twice the size of a satellite by the same name orbited in December 2012…
Nuclear Option Weighed by ROK Lawmakers
North Korea’s fourth nuclear test has provoked renewed calls among leading South Korean lawmakers for South Korea to obtain its own nuclear deterrent force. Public opinion has also become more supportive of a nuclear-armed South Korea.
LRSO: Underappreciated Component of 21st Century Deterrence
The U.S. Air Force awarded a much-anticipated contract for the Long Range Strike Bomber (LRSB) last month, a critical platform to support both conventional missions and nuclear deterrence. Much remains…
European Missile Defense after Ukraine and the Iran Deal
With the conclusion of a joint plan of action for Iran’s nuclear program, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov of Russia has returned to his favorite talking point: that NATO should scale…
Sustaining Nuclear Deterrence Requires New Capabilities
Defense News US Defense Secretary Ash Carter recently visited Berlin to assure allies that the US would deter aggression. NATO leaders are worried that Russia might invade the Baltics in…
What a Yemeni Missile Teaches Us About the Iran Deal
One may be forgiven for not noticing that Saudi Arabia on June 6 used Patriot missiles to intercept a Scud-class missile fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen. Besides adding the…
Getting the GCC to Cooperate on Missile Defense
This week President Obama convenes a summit with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council, at which he will reportedly urge GCC members to move forward on missile defense cooperation….
Distributed Lethality: Navy’s Doubling Down on Missiles
The Navy’s bold new “distributed lethality” (DL) concept could dramatically change naval operations both in terms of geographic dispersion and armaments of individual ships. By decreasing emphasis on manned aircraft,…
Like It or Not, Containment Is What It Is
As bad as containment sounds, it may now be hard to accomplish more. Secretary of State John Kerry has emphatically denied that the United States is pursuing a containment strategy…
The Future of Homeland Missile Defense
The annual Space and Missile Defense conference held August 11-14 in Huntsville, Alabama covered a wide range of topics, but the future of Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) program was among…
Ballistic and Cruise Missile Defense Advances
Several recent tests suggest progress for both ballistic and cruise missile defenses. On June 22, a Ground-based Interceptor (GBI) successfully destroyed a long-range target high above the Pacific. As the…